Next week is not only November’s monthly option expiration week, but it is also the last full week of trading before Thanksgiving. DJIA has a reasonably solid track record over the last 28 years, rising 19 times the week before Thanksgiving with a median gain of 0.41%. But the other major U.S. stock market benchmarks have not been as strong and there has been more weakness across the board recently. Since 2003 DJIA is up only 9 out of the last 18 years with a median loss of 0.09%.
S&P is up 16 of the last 28 years with a median gain of 0.24% and down 10 of the last 18, -0.16% median loss. NASDAQ is up 16 of the last 28 years with a median gain of 0.28% and down 9 of the last 18, +0.07% median gain. Russell 2000 is up 15 of the last 28 years with a median gain of 0.54% and down 10 of the last 18, -0.20% median loss. If weakness does manifest next week, it may be a good set up for the Thanksgiving trade of buying into weakness the week before Thanksgiving and selling into strength around the holiday and typical November end-of-month strength.