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Up 7 of Last 10 After Presidents’ Day – Longer Term Still Weak

DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all up 7 of the last 10
years on the day after the Presidents’ Day market holiday with average gains ranging
from 0.12% for DJIA and 0.39% for NASDAQ. In our February 2022
Strategy Calendar
for newsletter subscribers shows conflicting indications
for this Tuesday, February 22, the day after Presidents’ Day. Over the most
recent 21-year history this 15th trading of February has been down
more than 60% of the time for S&P 500 with average loss of -0.27% earning
the day our “Angry Bear” icon.

Earlier this we noted the improving trend of market performance
ahead of Presidents’ Day
weekend. As you can see in the table here the days
after has improved the past 10 years but the Wednesday after has not enjoyed
the same turnaround and both days still display a fair amount of red. Since
1990, Tuesday after Presidents’ Day has been strongest for the S&P 500 with
18 gains and 14 losses for median gain of 0.11% but with an average loss of -0.22%.
DJIA also has more gains than losses on the Tuesday after, but NASDAQ is a net
loser down 19 of 32 years with an average loss of -0.48% and a median loss of -0.21%.

Wednesday is all red for all three major averages. NASDAQ
and S&P 500 have more losses, but DJIA has a larger average loss. On the
Wednesday after the Presidents’ Day holiday DJIA is down 16 of 32 with an
average loss of -0.06% and a median decline of -0.03%. S&P 500 is down 19
of 32, average -0.02%, median -0.10% and NASDAQ is down 18 of 32, average -0.03%,
median -0.14%.

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