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Tempered Yearend Gains When S&P Down YTD Thanksgiving

Photo Credit: (C) David Turko | Macaulay Library

Last year at this time on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving S&P 500 was up 24.9% year-to-date. November 2021 gave back a fractional loss, but December and the Santa Claus Rally delivered solid gains.

But then the stuff hit the fan. Inflation became non-transitory, the Fed began tapering asset purchases and telegraphing imminent rate hikes, Russia invaded Ukraine and the bear came out of hibernation.

This year on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving the market is in an entirely different situation with S&P down -16.0% YTD. The table here shows how the market claws its way back in most years with fewer but sizable losses bringing the averages down.

The fact that November 2022 is up so far is supportive for continued upside. What stands out to us in this table is the rather solid performance for the Tuesday before Thanksgiving-Santa Claus Rally trade as well as solid gains for the Santa Claus Rally itself.

We wish everyone a happy and festive Thanksgiving and hope that you all enjoy the time with friends and family!

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