Breaking Stories

S&P 500 Down Year-to-Date and Down in April Preceded Year Loss 69.2% of the Time

With just two trading
days remaining, April will not likely live up to its historically bullish
reputation this year. S&P 500 decline in April as of today is 7.65%, second
worst April since 1950 and sixth worst since 1930. As of today’s close, the third
from last trading day of April, S&P 500 year-to-date loss of 12.22% is
second worse in our data going back to 1930. The worst year was 1970. Since
1950 the combination of a down S&P 500 April combined with a year-to-date
loss has been a clearly bearish indicator. Of the previous 13 occasions since
1950, the following May was positive five times with an average loss of 0.39%
and the full year finished positive four times. The only full-year double digit
gain was way back in 1952. The average loss in all years was 7.26%.

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