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November Vehicle Sales Forecast: Down slightly from October; Up 11% Year-over-year

by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2022 02:58:00 PM

From WardsAuto: November U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Slow from Prior Month; Still Point to Stronger Q4 (pay content). Brief excerpt:

Although heavily laden with pickups, inventory will rise again in November, lifting the prospects that the year ends on a strong note by overcoming challenges including myriad economy-related headwinds, high prices, potential railroad labor strike and others.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for November (Red).

The Wards forecast of 14.5 million SAAR, would be down 3% from last month, but up 11% from a year ago (sales weakened in the second half of 2021, due to supply chain issues).

Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, far behind housing. However, this time, vehicle sales have been suppressed by supply chain issues, and sales will probably not be significantly impacted by higher interest rates.

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