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Four House Price Topics

by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2021 10:27:00 AM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Four House Price Topics

Brief excerpt:

Even though the September index will show another very strong YoY gain, I expect house price growth to decelerate in coming months.

The following graph shows YoY price changes for the NAR median house prices, Case-Shiller National price index, and the FHFA purchase-only index (Fannie and Freddie loans only).

Most of the time, the NAR median price leads the Case-Shiller index, and I expect the Case-Shiller index to show a lower growth rate (but still robust) in coming months.

In the October existing home sales report released last week, the NAR reported months-of-supply was unchanged at 2.4 months in October. There is a seasonal pattern to inventory, but this is still very low – and prices will remain solid as long as inventories stay low.

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