by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2021 08:11:00 AM
Expectations are the FOMC will announce a faster pace of tapering assets purchases at the meeting this week.
From Goldman Sachs:
Analysts will also be looking for comments on inflation and on rate hikes in 2022.
Updated projections will be released at this meeting. For review, here are the September FOMC projections.
Wall Street forecasts are for GDP to increase at close to a 6.5% annual rate in Q4 that would put Q4-over-Q4 at around 5.4% – so the FOMC projections for 2021 are now a little on the high side compared to Wall Street.
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
As of October 2021, PCE inflation was up 5.0% from October 2020. This is above the top end of the projected range for Q4, and projections will be revised up.
PCE core inflation was up 4.1% in October year-over-year. Core PCE projections will be revised up.