Early Q4 GDP Tracking
by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2022 02:47:00 PM
Existing home sales actually fell less than we expected, implying slightly stronger brokers’ commissions in 4Q. As a result, our tracking estimate for residential investment in 4Q edged up. That said, after rounding, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate was unchanged at 1.3% q/q saar. [Nov 18th estimate]emphasis added
We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +0.9% (qoq ar). [Nov 18th estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 4.2 percent on November 17, down from 4.4 percent on November 16. [Nov 17th estimate]
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