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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 18.8% year-over-year in December

by Calculated Risk on 2/22/2022 09:12:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December (“December” is a 3-month average of October, November and December prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 18.8% Annual Home Price Gain for Calendar 2021

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census
divisions, reported an 18.8% annual gain in December, remaining the same from the previous month.
The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 17.0%, up from 16.9% in the previous month. The
20-City Composite posted an 18.6% year-over-year gain, up from 18.3% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in
December. Phoenix led the way with a 32.5% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a
29.4% increase and Miami with a 27.3% increase. Fifteen of the 20 cities reported higher price
increases in the year ending December 2021 versus the year ending November 2021.

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.9% month-over-month increase in
December, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 1.0% and 1.1%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.3%, and
the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively.

In December, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.

“We have noted that for the past several months, home prices have been rising at a very high, but
decelerating rate. The deceleration paused in December, as year-over-year changes in all three
composite indices were slightly ahead of their November levels. December’s 18.8% gain for the
National Composite is the fifth-highest reading in history. [says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI]. …

“We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven in part by a
change in locational preferences as households react to the COVID pandemic. More data will be
required to understand whether this demand surge simply represents an acceleration of purchases that
would have occurred over the next several years rather than a more permanent secular change. In the
short term, meanwhile, we should soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home

emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 1.4% in December (SA).

The Composite 20 index is up 1.5% (SA) in December.

The National index is 50% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.3% (SA) in December. The National index is up 105% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 17.0% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 18.6% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 18.8% year-over-year.

Price increases were above expectations. I’ll have more later.

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